There’s something frustrating about being told we need a clear road ahead on electric cars, only to discover that the people in control of the satnav can’t even agree on which direction to take.

According to reports, ministers are considering cutting the proportion of new cars that must be electric in 2030 from 80% to around 60%, while retaining the commitment to all new cars being zero emission by 2035. 

Even inside government, there appears to be little agreement about how we get there, which is hardly reassuring if you’re deciding what car to spend your hard-earned money on or, as a business, where to invest.

Carmakers already have flexibility under the ZEV mandate

Before offering further concessions, ministers need to acknowledge those already in place.

You’ll hear plenty about this year’s 33% electric car target and how sales are falling short. What gets rather less attention is that manufacturers don’t necessarily need a third of their sales to be electric to comply, because the ZEV mandate already contains substantial flexibilities. 

They can buy surplus credits from other manufacturers, bank them for later or borrow against future performance, within limits. They can also convert savings against their combustion fleet CO₂ baseline into allowances that help meet their electric car obligations.

That last bit matters. A petrol or diesel car doesn’t become zero emission through an accounting adjustment, but selling lower-emission combustion models, including petrol and diesel hybrids, can help a manufacturer comply while selling fewer fully electric cars.

New Automotive’s analysis, covered on Electrifying.com, suggests the car market collectively is already ahead of its estimated requirement once CO₂ flexibilities are included. 

Some manufacturers remain behind, of course, but it’s a rather different picture from suggesting the whole system is failing – and raises questions about whether their product planning and investment in electrification have been good enough.

If ministers cut the headline targets while retaining or extending concessions that reduce the effective requirement, they risk weakening the policy twice. To me, that looks suspiciously like letting the car industry have its cake and eat it.

Government should listen to manufacturers, whose investment and jobs matter enormously, but listening shouldn’t mean allowing a few private companies to dictate environmental policy.

There is, however, one part of this debate where I think a more pragmatic approach is needed – vans.

Electric vans face a different set of challenges

Electric cars and electric vans are at different stages of adoption. The SMMT's figures puts electric light commercial vehicles at 11% of registrations through October, including heavier electric vans, against a headline van target of 24% this year. That comparison also needs the flexibilities caveat, but the adoption gap deserves attention.

For a business, a van has to earn its keep. Can it carry the load, complete the working day and charge where it’s parked? What happens when time spent charging is time you can’t bill a customer?

Manufacturers selling both cars and vans can already transfer surplus car allowances to help meet van obligations, linking the two markets even though their customers face different challenges.

Purchase grants and depot charging support already exist, so ministers should examine whether they’re reaching the businesses that need them, alongside considering a more realistic trajectory for vans.

That would be more useful than weakening electric car targets to accommodate difficulties elsewhere. With a growing choice of affordable models, we should be building buyers’ confidence and supporting continued investment in charging. A reliable network across the UK is essential to making the switch practical for more drivers.

By all means fix the parts of the framework that aren’t working, but let’s be clear about what actually needs fixing before weakening the ambition.